Although Russia denies planning an invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainians are preparing for just that. In recent weeks, Russia has stationed upwards of 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian-Russian border and annexed Crimea. By increasing security on the borders, Russian President Vladimir Putin expects Ukraine to realign back to Moscow and rely on them. Ukraine, however, opposes such ideas.
Stanford University scholar on Ukrainian, Russian, and European security, Steven Pifer, believes that “the costs to Russia of attacking Ukraine would significantly outweigh the benefits. However, Mr. Putin seems to operate on a different logic, and officials in Washington and European capitals have expressed real alarm about the prospect of Russian military action. Western officials would be wise to assume the worst and do everything they can to try to dissuade the Kremlin from war.”
A top Ukrainian military expert told Al Jazeera News in December of 2021 that Russia could possibly invade Ukraine as early as January 2022, “unleashing a brief and victorious war.” If war truly did break out, over 43 million people (one-third of Ukraine) would be affected by the war, whether it be displacement or food insecurity of sorts.
However, Russia would also suffer greatly if they were to invade. Nikolay Mitrokhin from Germany’s Bremen University called it “suicidal” for Russia to invade as “the US and the EU will stop buying Russia’s hydrocarbons and fertilizer and will give up on Nord Stream 2, a brand new natural gas pipeline to Germany that awaits certification.” Both of those are large industries that Russia relies on Europe and the U.S. to invest in, and therefore, an invasion of Ukraine would be tragic.
“Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea in 2014 was the biggest land grab in Europe since World War II, and it violated many commitments that Russia had made to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The Kremlin then provoked and supported, in some cases with regular units of the Russian army, the conflict in Donbas. Those actions had major negative repercussions for Russia’s relations with the West, and the West reacted,” explains Pifer.
In response to Crimea’s annexation, for example, the United States and Europe both coordinated sanctions that would target Russia and their economy. NATO increased defense spending, and also deployed more ground forces in its member states on the eastern side.
Current Russian-Ukrainian tensions date back to the war in 2014, in which Russia annexed Crimea. Putin ideally wants Ukraine to realign towards Moscow. However, Putin and the rest of Russia have not made that outcome likely, considering the conquest of Crimea and the fight that lost the lives of over 13,000 people.
Putin also wants “NATO to rethink policies, such as enlargement and the deployment of relatively small battlegroups on the territory of Poland and the Baltic states.” However, nothing suggests that NATO will make those changes. NATO is focused on defending member states and does not appear ready to deploy offensive lines.
Three different meetings were held to discuss the ongoing situation. Russian and U.S. officials met on January 10, but unfortunately remained in a stalemate over Russia’s wish to block eastern NATO expansion.
A NATO-Russia meeting occurred on January 12, in which four hours of diplomatic talk resulted in minimal results. NATO rejected Russian desires to stop expansion and guarantee that Ukraine will never join, but they did engage in discussions about arms control and missile deployments in Europe.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) met on January 13, in Vienna. There was no breakthrough in conversations and no progress on defusing Russian troops on Ukraine’s border.
As tensions continue to rise, diplomatic efforts seem to be at a standstill. Both sides remain at a stalemate, with no clue whether Russia plans to invade Ukraine or not.
