Vaccines have played an integral part in decreasing COVID cases. (The New York Times)

Since early 2022, the Omicron subvariant BA.2 has accounted for many of the new infections. One of the three Omicron subvariants, BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1, which caused the spike in cases in the winter. Much of the world, including places that were not as heavily affected by previous strains, is experiencing outbreaks again. However, it is not clear yet as to whether or not the strain will cause the same spike in the United States.

During a White House COVID-19 press briefing on April 11, Dr. Ashish Jha, the coronavirus response coordinator, said, “We are likely to see surges in the future. We may get another variant, we don’t know. That’s got to be the strategy. Not so much predicting exactly what’s going to happen when, but preparing for any eventuality that Mother Nature throws at us.”

He explained that “If you think about where we are, as a country, we are at a really good moment,” Jha said. “Infection numbers are relatively low. We have fewer people in the hospital right now than at any point in the pandemic.”

Indeed cases in the US have been steadily decreasing since peaking in January when there were sometimes more than a million cases reported in a day. During this past March, cases were usually in the 6,500-25,000 range. This dramatic decrease in cases is likely attributable to broad immunity, whether it be from vaccines or natural infection, among the public.

However, the US saw the same pattern in cases in August and September due to the Delta variant. Similarly, only seven months before the Delta variant spike, the US saw another spike in cases. Although the most recent wave has been the largest the US has experienced, it does not mean that another spike is unimaginable. 

BA.2’s higher transmissibility also increases the likelihood of this. Part of the reason why the spike this past December was so massive was because of BA.1’s ability to overcome protections like vaccines and previous infections. BA.2 has eight more mutations than BA.1, making it even more transmissible.

However, these mutations do not make BA.2 necessarily better at evading vaccines. Getting the vaccine and booster shot increases one’s ability to work against the variants. In a recent study, antibodies taken from people six months after receiving the Pfizer vaccine were equally ineffective against the BA.1 and BA.2 variants. However, after receiving the booster shot, the antibodies were able to neutralize both strains.

Still, BA.2 has become the dominant strain and caused a spike in cases in countries even with high vaccination rates like Britain and Germany. The US has usually followed Britain in COVID trends, so it could be possible that the US will see a similar increase in cases. It may be even more severe though since Britain has a 17% higher full vaccination and booster rate than the US.

Despite this potential wave, it is unlikely that states will put COVID precautions such as mask-wearing back in place. It is still unclear whether these mandates are necessary yet. However, getting vaccinated can be the most effective way to protect oneself until we know the full extent of BA.2’s capabilities.